Bonus bonus gem

This intro to a new McKinsey study, which glosses over the fabled lust after emerging markets from your favorite multinationals, is a true classic:

"Creating a powerful emerging-market strategy has moved to the top of the growth agendas of many multinational companies, and for good reason: in 15 years’ time, 57 percent of the nearly one billion
households with earnings greater than $20,000 a year will live in the developing world. Seven emerging economies—China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Indonesia—are expected to contribute about 45 percent of global GDP growth in the coming decade. Emerging markets will represent an even larger share of the growth in product categories, such as automobiles, that are highly mature in developed economies."

Ah yes, product categories such as automobiles. Because clearly repeating the exact same mobility problems in countries which are vastly more populous than their US and European counterparts is a good--let alone a feasible--idea. Beijing traffic, anyone?

And then there's fun with growth. As Paul Gilding has been saying for years, all these calculations predicting the GDP growth share of emerging markets are based on historic growth patterns. Not on the gross uncertainties--and what Gilding believes is a certain calamity--of a future where this rapidity of growth isn't possible.

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